I spent a long time on a year in review but it sounded a little bitter and I thought a look forward in to 2008 was more appropriate.
Kevin Cahill will RUN for Ulster County Executive and will be sworn in as Ulster's first Exec on January 1st 2009.
The race for Cahill's Assembly seat in the 101st will be a blood bath with a five way primary consisting of county legislators, a town Supervisor, and a Kingston Alderman.
The Ulster County Democratic Committee will elect a new chair after John Parete chooses not to seek another term. His successor? A candidate that was on the ballot in 2007. The new chair will unite the party and the Dems will sweep every 2008 race in Ulster County.
Congressman Maurice Hinchey will run for another term for congress.
The Democrats will take back the NYS Senate and our local Senator John Bonacic will become Minority Leader.
Hillary Clinton will win Iowa and New Hampshire and go on to win the nomination and the presidency.
Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for President.
Elliot Spitzer will appoint A.G. Andrew Cuomo to Hillary's Senate seat.
The Dallas Cowboys will be the Super Bowl Champs.
Hugh Reynolds will write columns that are completely fair and balanced. Reynolds will aso enter anger management and will no longer take out his frustrations out on the people that he writes about.....just kidding, Hugh Reynolds will continue to be Hugh Reynolds.
36 comments:
Why include Woltman in your poll? He couldn't get elected to clean outhouses.
They all look pretty accurate to me,except you left out the part about whether Hinchey will win his bid. His seat is looking pretty red right now. Definitely in play without overwhelming support in this county. The Hillary supporters aren't happy with his back-stabbing. Sennett will make an excellent chair.
Dear Jeremy,
I beg to differ on your prediction of Kevin Cahill as the next Ulster County Executive.
Please list his accomplishments in the last year. Why in the world would he give up a seat in the Assembly for a county exec job?
He runs the risk of losing both. Electing Cahill as county executive would be as bad as electing Vince Bradley as DA.
Business as usual. Cronism. Bad news.
Mike Hein is eminently more qualified and experienced for the job.
Mike Heins Brother.
http://www.midhudsonnews.com/News/Obit-Hein-
31Dec07.htm
It's nice to be mentioned. Thanks Jeremy and have a Happy New Year!!!
714AM- Woltman is qualified for the position and I would vote for him over Cutten in a heartbeat.
8:43am -- It goes without saying that Hinchey will win reelection.
8:55am These are just predictions and I could be wrong. I disagree with your analisis about Cahill. Ulster County would be well served with Cahill or Hein as our Executive.
BeenThereDoneThat’s 2008 Political Predictions:
Kevin Cahill will run for Ulster County Executive. Despite the division of the county Democratic Party, he will win in a very close race over a well-known, heavily funded Republican opponent. This countywide race will be bitter in nature tainting both candidates in the printed media as political promises will be freely made and broken by both sides.
Sue Zimet will go on to be elected state senator from the 42nd senatorial district.
Lisa Cutten will receive the Democratic nomination for comptroller. She will be elected to the office receiving more votes than Cahill in the general election.
Hillary Clinton will be our first female U.S. President narrowly defeating Republican Rudolf Guliani in a three person race. Ralph Nader will run again for the third time in 2008 capturing 5% of the popular vote.
Maurice Hinchey will run again and win a 9th term as the U.S. Representative from the 22nd district.
The rift in the U.C. Democratic Committee will historically continue. Long standing animosities and bickering over past slights will prevent unification-- even when a new liberal, progressive chair is selected by the committee as a whole. This coupled with virtually no funds in the party’s coffers will create undue difficulties for the party’s county-wide candidates.
With a new progressive chair,funds will flow from me personally and many others that will finally be represented. Local town committees will falter. With a nationwide sweep by progressives,the old animosities will be irrelevant. To keep their party from the brink of death the republicans will win over our "undesirable" conservatives and the balance will be maintained. Zimet will have to learn to be more assertive and self-assured to be successful in winning people over. If you're not optimistic in your own prospects,why would anyone else be? If Hillary gets the nod,she'll beat Rudy by a considerable margin. If Rudy gets the nod,a conservative spoiler(sound familiar?) will ruin his bid. If Edwards gets the nod he'll handily win over the republicans,spoiler or not. Huckabee and Romney,aka the american al qaeda, are dead in the water. Hinchey's not guaranteed,he needs to make some serious amends for his unethical behavior. Obama you might ask? A black guy before a woman? That's a little too idealistic I think. Sounds good in the northeast but too many people in the fly-overs still want their slaves back. Sad but true.
What are Brian's qualifications? He has a job at C ity Hall for purchasing. He has no accounting background and no experience relevant to comptroller.
I don't like Lisa Cutten either, but she is more qualified than Woltman. Certainly, the Democratic Party can offer better than those two. And do not waste my time suggesting Jim Sottile. Yuck.
Been There...
What is the role of county executive? Pretty similar to county administrator?
What true experience does Cahill have running a county? He can't even run his mouth at the county democratic convention without getting heckled.
Cahill is an opportunist. For Bradley for 95 percent of the campaign and then changes his mind in the home stretch.
Kevin will not run for executive and will decide that his fate is in Washington when Hinchey reitres. He will be waiting a long, long time as Hinchey runs again and again and again. Some day, Kevin will inherit the right to run for Hinchey's seat, he will be supported by only Ulster County and he will lose in a primary to a candidate from elsewhere in the district, most likely the southern tier.
Mike Hein and Sue Zimet will battle it out for the democratic nomination for Executive. Sue will spend every dime she has getting the nomination, and she will have no money or energy left for the general election. Hein will run as a third party candidate and we will have a replay of this year.
The republican party will unite behind Benjamin, he will save his money for the general election and easily win in a three way race between a broke Sue Zimet as the democratic nominee and a Spada/Oliveri backed Hein as the conservative/independent nominee.
The democratic party will follow their history and nominate an unelectable presidential candidate in a country that still harbors huge pockets of racist and sexist sentiments. The democrats will pat themselves on the back for nominating the first woman or black for President and then watch as their candidate loses the general election in a country that is far less open minded than us New Yorkers.
Polls mean very little. When the curtain closes and people vote their true feelings, the numbers will show again that New Yorkers are out of step with the rest of the nation.
We will remain in Iraq, money that needs to go for education and housing at home will continue to go to rebuild schools and homes that we bombed to oblivion oversees. The dollar will continue to fall against the Euro and we will continue to pump our chests and proclaim our own successes in the face of the disasters that we leave in our wake.
Pretty glum predictions I concur.
Or maybe we will wake up and realize that we have gone astray and right things before it is too late. That sure would be nice.
I never read more bullshit in such a few short posts. Whoever is writing this shit, has absolutely no clue what they are talking about.
Sue Zimet will not win the Democratic nomination for County Executive. She polarizes people and is too self-focused.
And fortune-tellers aren't bullshit?
Cahill who has run for office over 25 +/_ years and has been elected at least 10 times is an opportunist? How the heck do you figure that?
Mike Hein is the opportunist. He is the one who changed parties from Republican to Democrat after the Democrats won the Legislature 2 short years ago. Those fools fell for his scheme.
He is no different than Bradley to me.
Zimet has no future. She has no support outside of New Paltz and the Democratic womens group.
If and when I'm ready to present my case to the good people of Ulster County I will.
In the meantime thank you Jeremy, and a very Happy New Year to all of you who read blabernews!!
Brian J. Woltman
No offense meant, but who the Hell is Brian J. Woltman? I follow politics pretty closely and have no idea who he is and have never heard of him.
All politicians are opportunists. Next argument, please.
Anonymous 12:56,
An elected county executive is the chief executive officer of county government. He or She appoints departmental heads--they serve at his pleasure. Also, he is responsible for submitting a fiscal budget and has veto power over local laws passed by the legislative body. Thus, a county executive is held accountable directly to the voters for his actions.
The county administrator position is an extension of the county legislative-executive form of government. He serves at the pleasure of the county legislature and involves himself primarily in the day-to-day operations of county government. The legislative Chairman, Dave Donaldson, acts as the county's chief executive officer and sets policy accordingly.
Another outmoded form of county government still in use in sparsely populated upstate counties is the Board of Supervisors. This basically is the town supervisors doubling as county legislators. The problem with this arrangement is that it violates the "one man-one vote" principle as a town supervisor with 5,000 residents has the same voting power as one with 20,000 residents.
Creating further confusion, cities with wards were permitted to elect county supervisors from each ward to the Board. The current 33 member county legislature is a direct descendant of the former Board of Supervisors, abolished in the late 1960's, consisting of 20 town supervisors plus 13 ward supervisors from the City of Kingston totaling 33 members. That's the way it was.
10:36 is clueless.
The Chair of the legislature is not chief executive of county. He/She leads meeting, appoints committees and signs contracts or agreements that the whole body approves. The chair has no more power than the other 32 except for a couple appointments, and that policy can be changed by the majority of legislators if they feel it's necessary.
I, Anonymous... predict
1. Kevin Cahill will not run for County Exec - because he doesn't actually want the job and besides, he is not qualified to have it. Cahill merely wants to be the Democratic Political Boss who picks the County Exec. The best qualified candidate in the field of potential candidates, Mr. Hein will be the Democratic nominee for County Exec.
2. Maurice Hinchey will retire at the end of his term. Hinchey will not crown Cahill nor Ahouse as heir-apparent. Despite Kevin Cahill's wish to inherit his congressional seat, a progressive Democratic candidate from outside of Ulster County, perhaps from Ithaca or Binghamton will emerge to succeed Hinchey.
3. Highly competant and qualified, Lisa Cutten will be Comptroller.
4. Mayor Jim Sottile will leave office prior to the end of his term, for a state appointment in Albany or possibly NYC.
5. Having alientated Democrats all across Ulster Couny with her abrasive and obnoxious demeanor, Susan Zimet will not be the party's candidate for NYS Senate or any county-wide office.
6. Reflecting the clear shift in political influence from Kingston and surrounding towns, John Parete will be succeeded as County Chair by a Democratic Committeeman from Southern Ulster County.
I have to wonder about the NYS Senate race prediction. While the Dems have an enrollment edge over Repubs in the 42nd district, adding in independence, conservative and WFP gives the sitting Senator a big enrollment edge. Beating a sitting NYS legislator w/o an enrollment edge or scandal isn't happening. Looking at our Senator's member item list shows him to be very above average at bringing in money to his district. Even Dem friendly woodstock got a $65K grant, so he's not just handing out grants to his own peeps. With the NYS senate teetering on a few votes, expect outside republican money to bolster the Senator's campaign. Finally, if Giuliani is the republican nominee, then NY dems will have a lot harder job ahead as voters come out for a local boy but cast in favor of the entire repub slate.
In the county, dems should make Hein (and any other dem candidates) to swear a pledge not to run on a different party line if he loses the primary. We should hear them all say such a pledge - and live by the primary results.
Anonymous 12:56,
You asked of Been There...
What is the role of county executive? Pretty similar to county administrator?
What true experience does Cahill have running a county? He can't even run his mouth at the county democratic convention without getting heckled.
Cahill is an opportunist. For Bradley for 95 percent of the campaign and then changes his mind in the home stretch.
***********************************************************************
Your first question I answered in the previous post.
To answer your second question, nearly all candidates for county executive have no experience in “running county government”. Candidates for the office are typically city mayors, county clerks and legislators. For example, Al Delbello [Westchester County Executive 1974-1983] was previously Mayor of Yonkers; Lucille Patterson [Dutchess County Executive 1979- 1991] served as a county legislator from Hyde Park; William Steinhouse, who succeeded Ms. Patterson as Dutchess County Executive in 1992 was previously the County Clerk.
Cahill does have name recognition, and all he or any other county-wide candidate for public office needs is 1,000 signatures of enrolled party members on a designating petition to get on the ballot. Then it is up to the voters to decide in the primary and/or general election.
Yes, the vast majority of politicians are opportunists. They will make promises to supporters they can’t or won’t keep. Unfortunately, These individuals will get to where they are on the backs of their supporters and quickly forget about them after they take office. This is all done in the name of political expediency.
Show me a politician that lives up to his promises, and I'll show you a one term politician
11:18- Your pretty much on tarket. The one thing I agree the most is Susan Zimit. She loves herself and everything she does. Almost all Legislators can't stand her. She is self promoting and self centered. She will never win anything except the Legislator seat. And that's because she comes from democratic New Paltz. Out side that Town, and remember she was put out after one or two years as Supervisor. she is a no body.
To all the Zimet bashers.
She received the nomination to run for Senate and she did very well considering that she was running against the Bonacic machine and combatting his advantage as the sitting Senator.
She went toe to toe with one of the most accomplished debaters and public speakers in the state and she did not give an inch. She won the support and friendship of many influential and wealty people in Albany and maintained those contacts and friendships after the election.
She secured financing for a nasty protracted campaign against an opponent with tons of money. She campaigned throughout a wide and diverse district and adjusted her message to the audiences that she spoke to. She has access to state party cash that will be critical in what promises to be a costly campaign.
All of this came after she lost for supervisor, so that race is pretty much irrelevant.
She could be running in a year when women are galvanized due to the Hillary campaign and her primary base of support is an area dominated by young people and students who are going to be out in force in a Presidential year.
None of the above is relevant to her ability to do the job or unite people if elected. Unfortunately, that is irrelevant to electibility.
Do not underestimate the lady.
To the 8:33 AM Zimet defender - that you feel a need to address "all the Zimet bashers" seems to confirm she has made many political enemies and is,
consequently, unelectible. If anything, Zimet is less popular because she is better known around Ulster County now.
Lets look at the NYS Senate race:
Zimet lost to Bonacic in a year that a wildly popular Elliot Spitzer was running for Gov at the top of the ticket. Zimet practicly crazy-glued herself to Spitzer's coattails, and she still lost.
Why would it be different with Hillary (or any other Democrat) running for President?
In 2006, other Democratic challengers in far more difficult races all over NYS beat well known, long serving Republican incumbents - but not a well-financed Zimet, with the "support and friendship of many influential and wealty people in Albany. Why?
Zimet complained bitterly about the nasty campaign Bonacic ran, but the fact is she told many
more lies about her record as Supervisor than Bonacic did.
Given her record, I don't think it is possible to underestimate Susan Zimet.
She had $69,000 and the coat-tails of Spitzer. People like me struck fear into Bonacic as we were vehemently anti-republican. Bonacic was still poison to local reds this past election. His coziness with the Kaplan/Auerbach crew is ruining them as we speak. If only Zimet had been a campaigner like Sennett,she'd be in Albany now. More in-your-face,aggressive and forceful promotion of our progressive ideals is what she needs. I'll have to see that before I act.
The Zimet supporter shows his or her lack of political knowledge. Zimet received 42-43% of the vote in a landslide Democratic year. Any person on the Democratic line would have gotten that same percent. A quality candidate may not have beaten Mr. Bonacic but they certainly would have made it a competitive race. Other than being a legislator from New Paltz, Zimet has no future in elected office and she knows it. She has very few friends left and the ones that like her know less about winning elections than she does.
Looking at the names the Democrats have for comptroller it does not look good for them. Berardi, Waltman, Cutten? If nobody better steps up this seat may go Repbulican to.
Not a Zimet "supporter" or" defender", never have been. Based on what I currently know about her experience and personality, I likely would not support her if she declared for executive.
Nevertheless, the reactions and responses she provokes show why her impact on this race and the future prospects for the party should not be underestimated.
I'd have supported a lamp-post over Bonacic and did my part to unseat him,rather than support her. Spitzer wanted her to win and I obliged. She disappointed me by not being serious. She could have won it if she was a better campaigner. I haven't heard anything negative about Berardi.
Wrong on Hillary in Iowa. Huh?
Whether you like Susan Zimet or not, she beat Bonacic (an entrenched, big name incumbent with more money than brains), in Ulster County. Based on that, to say she couldn't win a county-wide election in UC is ludicrous.
Frankly, the repugnicans will never find a County Exec candidate stronger than Bonacic was for Senate.
So, if all you Susan-bashers are right, then Democrats win in a cake-walk no matter who they nominate.
Zimet did not win "Ulster County"
She won the w/out Marlboro, Highland, Esopus and Kingston and maybe more. She would have lost all those areas by more than she was up in the rest of UC. Plus it was a year any good Democrat would have won by large margins. Like earlier poster said now that people know her they would never vote for her. She is finished in Ulster County politics.
Hey 8:27 PM:
You wrote: "the repugnicans will never find a County Exec candidate stronger than Bonacic was for Senate."
Senator John Bonacic is a resident of Orange County, and although he represents parts of Ulster in the NYS senate and remains relatively popular for a Republican here, he is not a possible candidate for UC Executive. A seasoned legislator, I suspect he would sooner be a candidate to succeed Maurice Hinchey in the US Congress. There may well be qualified and suitable Republican Ulster residents for County Exec., but I can't name even one. But who would have believed that lackluster Holley Carnright would win DA against a dynamic and qualified guy like Jonathan Sennett? I'm afraid the Democratic leadership might screw up the race for County Exec, too- better make sure the party bosses - Kevin Cahill, Jim Sottile and John Parete - keep their hands out of it this time.
Note: Like Bonacic, Assemblyman Kevin Cahill (who is a resident of Ulster County) happens NOT to represent all of Ulster in the NYS Assembly. The Ulster County Towns of Denning, Hardenburgh, Rochester, Lloyd, Marlborough, Shawangunk, and Saugerties (7 of 20 Ulster County Towns, or about 30% of the county population) are included in other Assembly districts. As I recall, after the last census Cahill artfully carved the Town of Saugerties out of his district when his relationship with the Grecos soured, and then he carved in Wawarsing plus the Town of Rhinebeck in Dutchess County to disperse political enemies and protect his franchise.
Anyway, my point here is that like Bonacic and Zimet, Cahill is not an experienced county-wide candidate. But among them, Bonacic (a Republican!, go figure) may well have made the fewest political enemies.
Cahill had most of those towns at one time. He is a known and liked commodity everywhere in Ulster county. He beats any democrat or republican for any ulster county office he runs for.
Post a Comment