Thursday, December 22, 2011

Coming next few days 2012 Predictions

 In the next few days, I will do my 2012 predictions, I thought it would be fun to go down memory lane and look at the predictions I made last year.

On December 28th 2010, I did a blog post on 2011 predictions, and some I was pretty good on and some I was way off on..but actually for writing these in Decemeber of last year, I think I did ok..I was dead on about the Kingston races and this was way before any of the candidates had announced, some had not even thought of running yet.   <~~~~~ post from December 2010

Kingston Mayor Jim Sottile will not run for reelection or finish his full term in office.

I was right on the money on Sottile not running, he is finishing his term.

Kingston will see primaries on both the Democratic and Republican sides for the office of mayor.
Was accurate on prediction number 2, which was a good call being I made it in December

The winner of the Kingston Mayor's race will be a Kingston native and established politico, although considered some what of an underdog in the primary, his huge primary win gives him great momentum and an easy win in November..a few Aldermen may be tapped to serve in the administration, leaving some open seats and special elections in key areas of Kingston.

For the most part with the exception of only the special election part, this predication came true.

Kingston's Ward 6 will continue to have solid representation and the Ball will start moving forward bringing Kingston on the right track, another candidate will make some noise about running but he will quickly and swiftly be shut down

four for four!

The common council will remain solidly Democratic..two former Aldermen will make a run for the council will be successful, one will not.

half right on this one

Kingston will elect it's first female Alderman at Large; in fact the election in 2011 will guarantee that a female holds the post

dead the time I was thinking Provanzano vs. Levin

A bright charismatic former prosecutor and Kingston trial lawyer will be elected Ulster County District Attorney. The new Democratic D.A. will quickly transform the Ulster D.A.'s office in similar ways Spitzer transformed the NYS AG's office and will eventually go on to hold statewide office.

ok...I was wrong on that one too...ah, what could have been.

A Democrat will run on the Republican, Conservative and Independence lines for County Executive; Mike Hein fighting on the Democratic and working families lines will be reelected by an Andrew Cuomo type margin.

Wrong on that the time I was think Zimet may run

Incumbent legislators that will not be returning to the county legislature after 2011 : T.J. Briggs, Donald Gregorius, Richard Parete, Mike Sweeney, Robert Aeillo, Fred Wadnola, Jim Maloney, Jeanettee Provanzano, Al Lomita, Jack Hayes, Frank Fellicello, Sue Zimet, David Donaldson, Marybeth Maio
(note only two of these incumbents will lose their reelection bids, the rest may chose to retire with the redistricting, others (3) may run for higher offices.)

I was wrong on eight of these..but I was right Sue did run for higher office. When I did this Rich and Rob where going to be in the same district, I thought Jeannette was running for Alderman at Large...I did my best.

Two ulster co. legislators will be investigated and their reputations "trashed" for unethical relationships with a county agency

...nothing to this one...

A high ranking county political appointment will be "encouraged" to take early retirement rather than face termination

was wrong on this one

With the Democratic ranks swelling, and the Republicans shrinking, Julian Schrieman will be challenged from within the party to act more like the Majority Chairman and less like a casual observer

this may still happen..

A new local, middle of the road political party will be talked about to take advantage of the huge number of non enrolled voters

to be fair, I didnt write this one haha

Reapportionment will be the battle of the year in the County Legislature. The Republicans will not accept fair districts and force court action....again.

pretty accurate...this ended up being a huge issue

In the end it does not matter, Mike Hein's coattails and a Cahill returning to the legislature (and we don't mean Kevin, Mr. Malloney) bring Democrats back to the majority party, although it will be close.

Oh I wish Brian would of ran..he would of been that one vote I was talking about that would of given Dems the Majority :(

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