Sunday, May 30, 2010
Thu May 27, 2010 at 10:58:22 AM PDT
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/24-26. Likely Democratic primar voters. MoE 5% (5/10-12 results)
Blanche Lincoln (D) 44
Bill Halter (D) 47
Lincoln 59/36 (61/35)
Halter 63/21 (65/17)
Lincoln seems stuck in the mid 40s, as she has for weeks. Halter scooped up all the undecideds during the first round primary, and continues that trend in the runoff period. All the negative ads from all sides continue to do little to dent both candidates' favorability ratings.
There is a huge gender gap, with Halter winning women 51-39, while Lincoln wins men 49-43. African Americans continue to poll strongly for Halter, and he wins this key demographic 58-28. Lincoln has a slight edge among white voters, 47-45.
Same poll, but general election sample, among likely voters, MoE 4%:
Blanche Lincoln (D) 38 (40)
John Boozman (R) 58 (54)
Bill Halter (D) 42 (41)
John Boozman (R) 53 (50)
Lincoln 37/58 (39/55)
Halter 47/37 (47/34)
Boozman 52/34 (45/34)
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Jonathan Sennett (since when do you wear glasses?)
Ulster County Executive and possiably Lt. Gov. Mike P. Hein
The thugs in the Saugerties committee pushed through their candidate Sager to challenge John Bonacic this November, expect Senator Bonacic to win by a huge margin. Sue Zimet may have given the Senator a run for his money but this Sager guy will go down in flames. However, as a committeeman I will be supporting the party nominee.
Former Supervisor Nick Woerner made no secret that he will be running for chairman against Julian Schreibman this September, which should be a pretty intresting race. There is no way Julian will retain his chairmanship and I wish Nick the best of luck.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Ulster Executive Mike Hein
Cuomo's Short List:
With his announcement today that he will run for governor, the question befuddling New York politicos is exactly who Andrew Cuomo will pick as his lieutenant governor. A campaign spokesman declined to discuss the question, but here’s a short list based on conversations with a number of Democratic sources.
Denise O’Donnell. A former federal prosecutor and U.S. attorney from Buffalo, O’Donnell had served until this year as head of the Division of Criminal Justice Services. She resigned amid reports that Gov. David Paterson contacted a woman pursuing domestic violence charges against his aide. Several sources were puzzled when O’Donnell opted not to run for attorney general after her exit from the administration, and a prospective LG nod is one explanation. In addition to bona fides as a prosecutor and administrator, O’Donnell would bring gender and regional balance to the ticket.
A business or academic executive. Cuomo is making separation from the legislature to be a major theme of his campaign, and one source close to him said the search encompasses business and academic leaders. The thinking here is to find a proven administrator, someone who would be able to lead the state. I haven’t heard many specific names bandied about, and the thinking is that this kind of person would not have a very high public profile at the time of their nomination.
Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings. That’s right, our very own mayor’s name has been floating around this week, but sources close to both him and Cuomo pop the trial balloon as quickly as it is inflated. Still, Jennings and Cuomo are long-time friends, and Jennings backed Cuomo in his failed 2002 gubernatorial run.
Rochester Mayor Robert Duffy. Duffy would bring regional balance to the ticket, and his name has long circulated as a possible pick by Cuomo. However, a source indicated the two have not had contact in some time. He announced in March he would not seek re-election. (Update: I misread something. Sorry about that.)
Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown. Brown previously served in the state Senate, and was elected mayor in 2005. Several Democrats said that Cuomo had favored Brown earlier this year, but his star had fallen as he came under scrutiny for his distribution of development funds.
Christopher St. Lawrence. Not likely, but the Ramapo Town Supervisor has been out on the trail seeking the nomination for months. He’s under no illusions, though.
Bill Thompson. The former New York City comptroller and stronger-than-expected mayoral candidate has been mentioned for a spot on the ticket, but a source close to him said it’s highly unlikely. At one point, Thompson was mentioned as a natural pick for comptroller, given Cuomo’s lack of love for incumbent Tom DiNapoli.
Sen. Andrea Stewart-Cousins. The legislator from Westchester County won a hard-fought election in 2006, and has been mentioned. But she is an incumbent state senator — not the best resume point right now — and her seat would be competitive were she to leave it.
Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner. Several Democrats mentioned Miner’s name, but just as quickly dismissed her because of a lack of experience. They said Cuomo was interested in her initially because of her background (again, a woman from Onondaga County would provide gender and regional balance) and her previous work for Gov. Mario Cuomo, but felt that she couldn’t be plucked so soon after her November 2009 election.
Ulster County Executive Michael Hein. I heard Hein’s name mentioned a few times, with Democrats noting that his record as an executive dovetails well with Cuomo’s platform.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Julian Schreibman is just a disaster, at the Democratic convention that takes place Monday evening he will be hosting a reception for AG candidate Eric Schniederman... I like Eric Schniderman and think he would make a fine Attorney General but he is not the candidate of the party at this time and it is inappropriate for Julian to have a reception for this guy without allowing Kathleen Rice, Eric Dinallo, Richard Broadsky and all the other candidate's running the same opportunity.
Furthermore, it's a slap in the face to Kevin Cahill and Maurice Hinchey who are supporting Richar Boradsky and our next Governor Andrew Cuomo who is supporting Kathleen Rice.
What is Schriebman thinking????
The simple answer is he is not. Julian has no clue what he is doing or how to run the party. If Julian is reelected in September he will be the top Democrat in 2011 when our Executive Mike Hein is up, when we have the opportunity to take back the office of District Attorney, numerous local elections including Mayor of the City of Kingston and an opportunity to take back the Ulster County legislature, which we lost under his watch.
We as Democrats simply can not afford Julian Schriebman to be Chair during these important elections, we need new fresh leadership from someone that actually knows what they are doing or we will continue to lose elections.
I personally today am offering to donate $500.00 to a serious Democrat that steps up to the plate and challenges Julian Schriebman.
Mike Harkavey and his gang are apparently supporting newly minted Democrat and soon to be former Republican David Sager over Democrat Seth Goldman for NYS Senate. WTF? Is this not the same committee that launched a jihad (and rightfully so) over Vincent Bradley for running as a non Dem, when we had a great qualified Democrat running??? Be consistent Mike! Mike Harkevey should get off that high horse of his and out of the Democratic party.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Working tirelessly to bring jobs into Ulster County
Chair of the Assembly's Energy committee, making sure that NYS keeps up with the rest of the country and protects our future through green initiatives
Monday, May 17, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
The mystery opponent with a great financial background that wants to run against Comptroller Auerbach we here has NONE. The life long Democrat who two months ago turned independent, graduated from Coleman high school and was a bookkeeper for former Auditor Lisa Cutten. The woman also ran Lisa Cutten's campaign for mayor in 2007 (I can count the votes Cutten got on my fingers, so we know off the bat, campaigning and auditing are not this persons strong points). Why on earth would this person run for office and run for an office she is not even qualified to hold?
Comptroller Auerbach on the other hand has plenty of experience, as an economist, a former small business owner, former Mayor and Village Manager of Ellenville, he has brought his experience in both the public and private sector to work in his office, watching and accounting for every dollar as if it were his own. Reaching across the aisle for the good of the people of Ulster County and making the office of the Comptroller apolitical.
We hear further rumors that a former County Legislator and chair of the New Paltz Independence party also is looking at a run..could we see a three way race for Comptroller this year?
Whether it's one, three or ten people running, Elliott Auerbach is running and seems confident that he will prevail in November and I agree. We need to reelect Watchdog Auerbach to continue doing the great job that he is doing.
Friday, May 07, 2010
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Sunday, May 02, 2010
Assemblyman Cahill is very popular here in Ulster County and well respected in Albany for all the work he has done in the state Assembly and for his constituents. I stand by my opinion and I told Hein this, Cahill would beat him, not a doubt in my mind.
I do however give the County Exec credit for addressing me directly and not just attacking me behind my back as others choose to do. Again, a lot of what is written on this blog is just me opining the goings on of Ulster County. Hein is the highest elected official in Ulster and as I said to him, he needs to grow thicker skin. People are going to write about him and it's not always going to be positive.
90% of the time this blog is more than favorable to Hein, and I like Mike, he is not a bad Executive, I could see myself voting for him in 2011. In his two years in office he has a solid list of accomplishments and has shown basic competency for the job he was elected to do. But, that does not mean he is the greatest thing since sliced bread and it does not mean that he is above criticism. He has his faults, like me, he can be very polarizing, people either love Hein or hate him..I sort of love-hate the guy ;)
With that being said County Executive Hein will no doubt face stiff competition in 2011, Jim Quigley on the Republican side would be a tough contender. Cahill or Auerbach would also be tough if either of them decided to make a leap for the top spot in 11', even Zimet could give Hein a run for his money.
If Mike Hein is worried he sure didn't let it show, when we talked about the hypothetical Cahill v. Hein match up, Hein said to me very confidently: "Jeremy. lets see if we can make that race happen."
Be careful what you wish for Mr. Executive.