From the magic Crystal ball that has all the secrets in Ulster Politics, here is what 2011 will bring......
Kingston Mayor Jim Sottile will not run for reelection or finish his full term in office.
Kingston will see primaries on both the Democratic and Republican sides for the office of mayor.
The winner of the Kingston Mayor's race will be a Kingston native and established politico, although considered some what of an underdog in the primary, his huge primary win gives him great momentum and an easy win in November..a few Aldermen may be tapped to serve in the administration, leaving some open seats and special elections in key areas of Kingston.
Kingston's Ward 6 will continue to have solid representation and the Ball will start moving forward bringing Kingston on the right track, another former candidate will make some noise about running but HE will quickly and swiftly be shut down
The common council will remain solidly Democratic..two former Aldermen will make a run for the council again...one will be successful, one will not.
Kingston will elect it's first female Alderman at Large; in fact the election in 2011 will guarantee that a female holds the post
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A bright charismatic former prosecutor and Kingston trial lawyer will be elected Ulster County District Attorney. The new Democratic D.A. will quickly transform the Ulster D.A.'s office in similar ways Spitzer transformed the NYS AG's office and will eventually go on to hold statewide office.
A Democrat will run on the Republican, Conservative and Independence lines for County Executive; Mike Hein fighting on the Democratic and working families lines will be reelected by an Andrew Cuomo type margin.
Incumbent legislators that will not be returning to the county legislature after 2011 : T.J. Briggs, Donald Gregorius, Richard Parete, Mike Sweeney, Robert Aeillo, Fred Wadnola, Jim Maloney, Jeanettee Provanzano, Al Lomita, Jack Hayes, Frank Fellicello, Sue Zimet, David Donaldson, Marybeth Maio
(note only two of these incumbents will lose their reelection bids, the rest may chose to retire with the redistricting, others (3) may run for higher offices.)
Two ulster co. legislators will be investigated and their reputations "trashed" for unethical relationships with a county agency
A high ranking county political appointment will be "encouraged" to take early retirement rather than face termination
Bright, New, Democratic candidates will emerge to take on old war horses like Bob Senor
With the Democratic ranks swelling, and the Republicans shrinking, Julian Schrieman will be challenged from within the party to act more like the Majority Chairman and less like a casual observer
A new local, middle of the road political party will be talked about to take advantage of the huge number of non enrolled voters
Reapportionment will be the battle of the year in the County Legislature. The Republicans will not accept fair districts and force court action....again.
In the end it does not matter, Mike Hein's coattails and a Cahill returning to the legislature (and we don't mean Kevin, Mr. Malloney) bring Democrats back to the majority party, although it will be close.
There you have 2011 at a glance and remember where you heard it first!
Feel free to put your own predictions in the comment section.
35 comments:
Redistricting gets all screwed up, by the committee, and legislature, end upin the courts and some judge does the whole plan. Surprise nothing get done by this legislature they pass the state for being dysfunctional or is being dysfunctional doing something
My Daddy will storm back into politics and be Kingston's first Black Mayor!!!
PEACE
LOVE
UNITY
The only thing missing are the names to attach to the predictions.
Primaries for Mayor
Clement vs. Noble -- Noble wins.
Turco-Levin vs. Palacco vs. Cahill
Palacco wins.
lets see if I read between the lines. Zimit will run for County Executive, Donaldson will primary for Mayor in Kgn.with Noble and Clement, Democrat Provenano or Turco/levine, Alderman at large, Sennet wins, Hoffay, Reynolds,Jennifer F,Ball wins this time around, Senor primared, more to follow
How about some actual names in the Mayor's race??
There will be no primary in either party. It will be Noble vs. Cahill with Reynolds vs Polacco for the second slot. There could be a split in the winners.
Turco-Levin will run for Alderman and lose.
The Legislature will be + or - 1 vote (likely DEM)
Hein gets reelected, but takes Hinchey's seat when he steps down due to illness
Here's a prediction for you. Sottile runs for reelection facing certain defeat.
The Republicans nominate Rich Cahill who gets the Con and IND lines as well. Turco-Levin gets the 2nd slot.
Polacco primaries Cahill and pulls off the upset. With Cahill still having the CON and IND lines, the resulting 3-way race causes Sottile to be narrowly reelected, though Noble loses to Turco-Levin.
The Dems take the Council 8-1 with the only Democrat losing being Senor.
For Mayor and Executive, the Democrats will not primary. Hein will be a post to post winner. As for Mayor, a front runner will jump out early and they will circle the wagons around that candidate. I think the primary battles will be in the Legislature and the Common Council. I still am not sure the Democrats take over the Legislature. The Dems are not spread through out the county, they are concentrated in a handful of places.
I hope a certain Republican is the candidate for Mayor. He has some political payback coming from the last election. I know of about 10 people, none from Kingston, who will actively work against him. That is how much he is despised. They do not want him to lose badly, they want him humiliated. Hell, there may even be people working on getting the goods on this choir boy as we speak ;)
In my opinion, Legislator Provenzano has already "trashed" her own reputation.
Provenzano justifies not re-appointing the 3 RRA Board Members that terminated Bemis because they waited too long - according to Provenzano,"till they had a list a mile long", implying that they should have acted sooner, and that is why they were not re-appointed.
Why isn't she calling for the resignation of the two Board Members who didn't think the list was long enough, wanted to give him more time and voted against the Bemis termination?
from the RecordOnline.com
Legislative leaders didn't appoint any of the trio to a second board term, meaning their oversight of the Resource Recovery Agency ends on Dec. 31.
"You don't wait until you have a list a mile long, then fire the guy," Provenzano, D-Kingston, said.
What she should have said is "but if you do have a mile long list, you should fire the guy, and keep on the people who made up the list, and fire the two people that voted against firing the guy".
Why is she so anxious for the people that dug up the dirt to go away?
Redistricting will ultimately make for a whole new ballgame. Districts were split up by the party bosses to insure an incumbency protection plan. Watch out for lawsuits if the plan does not meet the criteria.
Redistricting will ultimately make for a whole new ballgame. Districts were split up by the party bosses to insure an incumbency protection plan. Watch out for lawsuits if the plan does not meet the criteria.
Maurice is so far gone, he doesn't even realize the depth of his corrupted thought process. If Kevin Cahill had any balls at all, he would talk to his pal Silver and cut that miscreant Hinchey right out of the picture.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/29/nyregion/29redistrict.html?ref=nyregion
The Dems would be crazy to allow any primaries for common council. They will have very strong candidates for all the wards except maybe ward 1. If Andy leaves to primary for mayor the dems need to come up with someone who will be a stronger candidate than whats her face from 2 years ago (cant remember her name...not a good sign) They will hold onto all the other wards and pick up ward 6 with Ball. Senor will have an uphill battle but will win in the end.
You are right on a lot of your calls. Felicello is useless along wth Wadnola and Maloney its all about the money for them, Maio a good person should go to the town in the redistricting process, aiello has been useless for years his wife will retire his daughter gone he will give it up. Sweeney is just not happy gone,Hayes only ran because he hates Noonan and Rascoe egged him on now redistricting he does not have Rascoe to protect him and he loses his hometown big always. Turco- Levin should win alderman but has got to be a little smarter in her campaign. Cahill is old news and a loser. gregoriuos is a good legislator he could hang in there. Rich Parete wants out as does Stoeckler and Sheely. Provenzano, Lomita, and Pet-me gone as well as Terrizzi Rascoe does not like her and the redistricting limits him to the boy toy So there you go
4:56 - Quigley may be arrogant, but he's getting the town's fiscal house in order, which was in serious disarray when he took over. Let him fix what Woerner, the Brinks, and Secreto broke, and then oust him. In the meantime, it's not a popularity contest - it's about running the town...not into the ground!
Quigley is an imposter. He's a phony whos just a pawn for the good old republican party of ulster. He is NOT getting his house in order, he's making a mess of the house.His latest backdoor deal is trying to give the maintenance contract for the police department to good old republican boy D&D motors. This is after d&d was underbid by non polititian Begnal motors.When Begnal took over maintence 2 years ago, he cut the police maintenance cost over 50% over a year. NOW quigley wants to give it back to d&d, He's a PHONEY.
Sorry Jeremy, i wasn't looking outside the box. I was looking in the litter box, and saw Quigley.
It's interesting that 7:22 and 7:26 had no criticism during the Woerner administration. I guess spending every last dollar is OK with Woerner and Secreto. As far as the reduction of maintenance of the PD cars go, read through the abstracts and you'll see that Woerner and Secreto bought at least three (3) new police cars. Maybe that's why maintenance was decreased while Begnal had the contract. Go to Town Hall any time, any day - you'll see a fleet of vehicles. One time I counted 16 police cars. Did Secreto ever say "no" to Woerner? If Secreto ever runs for office again, he's going to have to explain the 20% tax increase that he approved, the bond that was illegally obtained to build up the reserves, the decimation of the reserves, the god-awful senior center, the $120K/year to Zweben, and the never-ending "yes" to Woerner. Don't go negative on Quigley - it'll come back to bite you in the ass.
Fact Jim Sottile has a car paid for by the city
Fact he has a personal jeep paid for by a developer that does buisness with the city and works for him on the side.
Fact Jim Sottile has raised taxes on average 6 percent each year since taking office
Fact Jim Sottile's friends buisness' do very well by working and getting contratcts with the city.
Fact Jim Sottile has went on expence paid trips and taking plane rides with compaines that get good work for the city.
Nick Woerner on his first year lowered taxes, without laying people off. His other budgets had similiar low increases. One year taxes were raised 20 percent. But in Quigley's first year he proposed raising them 19 percent..I know, I know, he has to fix Woerner's mistakes. Just like Woerner had to deal with Wadnola's. Let's face it Fred Wadnola is not smart. In fact how quicky we forget the 26 percent hike he gave the town in his tenure.
But back to the point why is Jim Sottile, who is 10x worse than Woerner, not attacked and villified like Woerner? Because Jim Quigley spent a lot of money and ran an effective campaign to smear Woerner plain and simple. Not saying the Woerner administration was great but it was better than Wadnola's and not nearly as "corrupt" as Jim Sottile's administration is.
Yeah don't give me this bs that Zweeben was over paid. Maybe he was but the other poster was right look at Jim Sottile, the work he gives his friends, that is billed to the city just like Zweben's to the town pales in comparrision. I mean look at all the work that Arold and others do that are own dpw workers could do. What does Sottile do? He lays off those guys, and guess what, a smaller work force means more outside work for his buddies.
As for Quigley? Look at the mouth on him, yeah maybe Blaber should not have posted the voicemail but it gives you a look into what a little power will do to ones ego.
Also again he proposed raising taxes 19% his first year. Maybe Woerner set him up for failer maybe he didnt, fact is Quigley camapigned against Woerner and did the same thing.
Also I love the last comment becasue it is soo true: "Noone will ever mistake Fred Wadnola for being bright. bahhahaha the guy is a dope.
This by far the most entertaining stuff I have ever read. Blaber do you ever worry one of these politicians is gunna have you swimming with the fishes? I don't know what's more entertaining the blog or the comments? It goes to show when you give people a forum they will spill their guts. Before I moved to Rosendale, I worked for the city of Chicago and Mayor Daley was very succesful in an initiative in the early 90's that was benificial in stopping corruption, he set up a hotline that allowed people to call anonymously and leave tips on fraud and abuse not just by city employees but anyone involved in city government. The first week there were about 10,000 calls, some bullshit but a lot of them were legit. The comment area kind of reminds me of that, Mike Hein should do that on a county level, I think it would be very effective. Just my thoughts.
Facts to consider, Woerner bought the police cars because he was obligated to buy the contract Wadnola signed on his way out the door. Zweben was never paid 120k per year and nearly 30% of Zweben's pay came from applicants to the planning boards Trust and Agency accounts. Wadnola raised taxes 33% in 2004 and tried to blame Carl McCall. Quigley,Hendrick and Marrow are all liars and they will lose their elections when the time comes! 2011 is a year for redemption and Woerner will be proven an effective leader.
Quigley has clearly found that talking is a lot easier than governing...
Can we get back to predictions, I hate hearing about Quigley, the guy makes me sick! Talk about one of your not so bright decisions Blaber. Why did you befriend this guy again? Where did they grow that Jim Quigley anyway?!
Mr. Whinypants is Rocky Secreto. Rocky - one of the reasons why Sottile isn't vilified like Nick is because when you call Jim Sottile, he returns your calls. Nick was (and probably still is) notorious for not returning phone calls. When you meet Sottile, he's friendly and he smiles. Unlike Nick, Sottile knows how to be pleasant. Nick scowls, never smiles, and thinks that intimidation is the way to win people over. Nick has always had a terrible personality - even as a little kid. Nick hangs around one of the most hated people in Ulster County: Andy Zweben. Nobody trusts that slimeball, and if Nick hadn't hired him to be the town's attorney, not only would the town be better off financially, but Nick would probably still be the supervisor. Nick's and Rocky's PILOT deal with Nick's cousin, Steve Aaron, sealed their fate. They approved an 80% tax decrease for Aaron, but foisted a 20% tax increase on to the taxpayers. During town board meetings, they were constantly going in to "executive session" - they violated so many ethics laws it was disgusting. Rocky has a lot of splainin' to do if he wants to run next year. The last thing Rocky should do is point fingers at and be negative about the current administration. That will not earn him any votes.
1155
How's Sottile doing on getting that 50k from you know who?? Yeah he's fuming mad over it he growled and roared in the paper three years ago and that was it but he wants that money WINK, WINK. Why not sue or take any action at all?
Oh I get it now, if you have a good personality and return phone calls (sottile has/does neither) it's ok to be a little shady.
I see however the previous commenter's facts were not disputed.
Oh btw- Jim Sottile's friends all great people another big wink at ya..let's face it you don't know jack. Go sit in the corner and let the big boys discuss politics.
Its obvious 10:52, you don't know what you'r talking about. Just like Quigley doesnt know anything about running a police department. Its in the police contract that if patrol cars goes over 100,000 mile, they will be replaced. And 16 cars is not huge fleet for a police department.Do yourself a favor and do a little homework before you start talking about something you know nothing about. Oh yea, the police department has plenty of vehicles,right, thats why they were riding around in highway department pick-up trucks during the storm. Now thats real professional. And maybe you should check the abstracts on the maintanance budget.You'll see the saving was because Begnal wasn't ripping the town off like d&d was. And thats a fact .
1:17 is obviously part of the Hinchey ticket who were angry that the truth about Hinchey and his behavior was posted on the Internet.
Also, if these people are not from Kingston, then they have no business involving themselves in Kingston politics.
Last, why do you hide your identity? Have you no guts?
Sottile not running, you got one right.
4:26 says "Why do you hide your identity ? Have you no guts ? Author of this comment...Anonymous !!
Rumor has it rhat you think andi levin will run for alderman at large against jen fuentes. Very interesting. Do you really think so?
Polacco for Mayor, Turco-levin-alderman at large and Rich Cahill, corporation counsel.
I'm In! Vote for ME.
1:31, Let me start by saying I know Jeanette Provenzano, I am a fan of hers,I voted for her in every election. If you knew anything about the Democratic and Republican caucus you would know that each Legislator has one vote, idiot, so those that now serve on the Board were voted in by a majority of votes not by one person vote. By the way Im a member of the conservative party.
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